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HYDROLOGIC MODELING
FOR STORMWATER MANAGEMENT PLANNING

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STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Land within the City of Ashland, MO is being developed, changing from agricultural to urban land uses. During the summer of 2000, the City annexed land, doubling the size of the City. Urbanization of agricultural land increases storm water discharges and the capacity to transport contaminants from a watershed into the streams it feeds. Portions of the City (including portions of the newly annexed land) are located in the Bass Creek watershed, with Bass Creek eventually running through losing stream segments (where the stream flows directly to groundwater) and through Three Creeks State Park. Storm water discharges need to be managed to meet regulatory requirements. In addition, the endangered Topeka Shiner is present downstream of Bass Creek.

In addition, the Environmental Protection Agency has promulgated Phase II Storm Water Discharge requirements. The City as a separate entity would not be required to comply with the storm water management provisions because its population is below the regulatory cut-off. However, because Ashland is located in Boone County, and Boone County will be required to develop a storm water management plan, Ashland may be required to participate in storm water management planning as part of a County-wide effort to meet requirements.

PRESENT SITUATION
The City of Ashland currently performs minimal storm water management planning because of it size (9500 population) and limited resources. However, the City is experiencing rapid growth. The City is located in the middle of the Columbia-Jefferson City corridor that is one of the fastest growing regions in the state. Much of the rural land in and around the City is targeted for development by private developers in the near future.

NEW APPROACH & POTENTIAL BENEFITS
The City of Ashland would like to develop a storm water management ordinance. Maps and the results of computer model runs can be used as part of the decision making process to evaluate alternative strategies. Maps and computer model runs can be used to outline the nature of the problem and the impact of various strategies at public meetings and other forums.

Storm water management planning requires an accurate assessment of current land use/land cover. In rapidly growing communities, this assessment must be frequently updated. All this must be done in a cost effective manner. Remote sensing is a new approach for rapidly documenting watershed characteristics for storm water management planning. Remote sensing combined with GIS can save labor and reduce time of delivery of storm water modeling parameters required for computer modeling as part of storm water management planning. Remote sensing can also rapidly produce and update maps needed by public officials in administering zoning and storm water management planning and in presenting strategies at public meetings and other forums.

TECHNICAL APPROACH TAKEN
The approach taken to provide input information to City of Ashland management was to use a modeling program commonly used to evaluate water quality in agricultural areas (the latest version of the Agricultural Non Point Source model, AGNPS 98). The program was modified to accept input data derived from remote sensing whenever possible.

Davis and Wang (ICREST team members) produced a 30-m digital elevation model (DEM) developed using digitally-scanned 1:40,000-scale National Aerial Photography Program (NAPP) aerial photos in conjunction with precision ground control. This DEM was used to delineate the Bass Creek watershed, the collector/contributing channels feeding into Bass Creek, and the subbasins into which the watershed is divided based on the occurrence of contributing channels. IKONOS images were not used to develop the DEM as they were not available when the modeling effort was undertaken.

Corrêa and Adhityawarma (ICREST team members) produced the land cover/land use classes required by AGNPS 98 using IKONOS multispectral images with 4 meter spatial resolution available for the project area. Land use/land cover for the Bass Creek area was determined by supervised classification using a maximum likelihood classifier. The area is mostly rural with a small diversification of land use. Eight classes were mapped: fallow fields, small grain fields, legumes, grass, woods, impervious areas, bare soil and water (lakes, ponds, etc.).

Project participants used IKONOS land cover classifications created for this project and the existing soil vector map to calculate an aggregate runoff curve number for each of the watershed subbasins based on existing conditions. Runoff curve numbers were used in AGNPS 98 with other input parameters to calculate peak discharges and sediment loads to the watershed outlet. The procedure was repeated using different curve numbers representing alternative development strategies.

Project participants examined sites within the City that are fully developed in each of the City’s residential and commercial zoning categories. From this examination, the percentages of each land cover classification in a representative site were determined. The percentages were used to calculate an aggregate assessment of how development has occurred in the City of Ashland. That is, the percentage of various land cover classifications that are found in representative residential and commercial areas has been determined. This represents how development has progressed in Ashland and may be used as a surrogate for how the City will develop in the future in a given zoning classification. The major importance of this task is in determining the percent impervious area in residential and commercial areas.

PRODUCTS

1. Map showing the Bass Creek watershed (with channels and subbasins indicated) superimposed on an IKONOS image of the City, to indicate to City officials and the public some of the information that is now available from satellite imagery.
2. Map showing the Bass Creek watershed (with channels and subbasins indicated) superimposed on an outline of the existing and recently annexed property, to indicate those areas of the City potentially impacting water quality in Bass Creek.
3. Map showing the Bass Creek watershed (with channels and subbasins indicated) superimposed on a color representation of existing zoning, as an indication of contributors to current sediment loads in Bass Creek.
4. Map showing the Bass Creek watershed (with channels and subbasins indicated) superimposed on a color representation of planned zoning, both within the City limits and outside of the City limits, as an indication of the potential contributors to sediment loads in Bass Creek under the ultimate development scenario.
5. Map showing the Bass Creek watershed and City limits superimposed on the current land cover classification.
6. Map showing the areas within the City that were taken to be representative of the various zoning classifications (based on the recommendations of the City’s consulting engineer). City-specific assessments of land cover/land use are desired by the City so that planning scenarios will represent how development is expected to take place in Ashland, rather than being based on textbook assessments of how development will progress.
7. Map and figures showing the satellite imagery used to develop the land cover classification, and the land cover classifications for City of Ashland R-1 developments.
8. Graphic displaying AGNPS 98 modeling results (sediment loads delivered to the watershed outlet). Bass Creek watershed (with channels and subbasins indicated) superimposed on an outline of the City of Ashland, with colors indicating sediment loads to the watershed outlet. The two simulations shown in this report are for sediment loads based on existing land cover (current simulation) and assuming all future urban residential development occurs with the same percentage splits between R-1, R-2, and R-3 development as exist now within the City. (R-weighted simulation).

INTEGRATION OF REMOTE SENSING DERIVED INFORMATION INTO THE HYDROLOGIC MODELING
The project used remote sensing derived data developed by other ICREST team members as some of the input parameters of hydrologic modeling. The DEM used was produced Dr. Curt H. Davis and Mr. Xiangyun Wang and the land use/land cover classes used were produced by Dr. Aderbal C. Corrêa and Mr. Janggam Adhityawarma.

LIMITATIONS ON THE USE OF THE INFORMATION
The products from this project are intended to inform decision making regarding the selection of stormwater management strategies. Field data are not available to calibrate the AGNPS 98 model. Therefore, the peak discharges and sediment loads calculated do not represent exact flows and loads that would be measured in the field after a rainfall event; however, they are appropriate to use in comparing alternative development scenarios. For instance, outputs from a number of alternative development scenarios will indicate the relative impact of the alternatives on peak discharges and water quality. The outputs as a whole can be utilized to determine those locations most sensitive to development pressures and the potential benefits that may be derived from implementing management strategies such as limiting the percentage of a development block that may be covered by impervious materials.


ANTICIPATED IMPLEMENTATION PROBLEMS IN URBAN GOVERNMENT
The maps supplying information on the watershed boundary in relation to the City limits and current and proposed zoning locations can be utilized immediately and directly: (1) by decision makers to identify potential areas of concern and (2) to show at public meetings to increase awareness of storm water issues. Computer outputs can be immediately and directly used by decision makers as they consider storm water ordinance alternatives.

Ashland has only four City employees, and thus all engineering analyses are currently performed by private consultants. The examination of any additional development scenarios would have to be conducted by consultants. If consultants are performing this function for a number of small communities, then it can be developed for the City in an economic fashion.

This information would be most useful to smaller communities who do not have the resources to hire a consultant to perform a detailed analysis of storm water impacts.

ADDITIONAL WORK

(1) Collect field data to calibrate AGNPS 98 for the Bear Creek watershed.
(2) Perform additional AGNPS 98 runs representing alternative land-development strategies.
(3) Because Ashland has no industrial areas, develop a surrogate industrial area specifying the percentages of the various land use classifications.
(4) Modify subbasins within AGNPS in order to be able to distinguish the impact of the spatial locations of stormwater management strategies (i.e., open space buffers adjacent to channels) on peak discharges and sediment loads.
(5) Investigate nutrient and pesticide loads to Bass Creek.
(6) Investigate how this information can feed directly into developing a storm water ordinance.

PROJECT PARTICIPANTS
Dr. Kathleen M. Trauth, Dr. R. Lee Peyton, Mr. D. Scott Adams, Dr. Aderbal C. Corrêa, and Mr. Janggam Adhityawarma of the Center for Environmental Technology (CENTECH), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, carried out the project for ICREST



Figure 1:IKONOS Panchromatic with City of AshlandOutlined
Figure 2: Bass Creek Watershedwith City of Ashland Outlined



Figure 3: Current City Zoning



Figure 4: Planned City Zoning



Figure 5:Landcover Clasification and Location of The Training Area using IKONOS Multispectral



Fig 6a: Residential Training Area Location



Fig6b: IKONOS Panchromatic



Figure 6c: IKONOS Multispectral



Figure 6d: Landcover Classification



Figure 7a. Current Simulation Figure           7b. R-weighted Simulation


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